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Check out his latest video blog post. Some pretty compelling prognostication…

Long story short…the Newt map is bad…very bad…

Yes, we’re still a long ways out…but people know Newt. And they’re not exactly fond of him.

Well, let me rephrase. Moderate Dems and Independents know Newt…and they’re not exactly fond of him.

What do you think?

6 COMMENTS

  1. I think if Newt wins the nomination, the Republicans don’t stand a change in November. With Romney, there’s at least a chance, but Newt’s negatives re way too high, and I don’t see that changing. It’s only a matter of time before he says something to get him in hot water.

    These next few months should be rather interesting!

  2. “…Moderate Dems and Independents know Newt…and they’re not exactly fond of him.” – JG

    Agreed. With both you and Jim S (shocking – I know).

    And according to Sabato, the establishment Republicans don’t want him either. He also does not come across as a Tea Party limited government Republican either. I can’t figure out who is voting for him.

    In 2008, you got the sense that Dem voters would switch between Obama and Clinton from one contest to the next for no other reason that they were not ready to say the contest was over. I wonder if that is what is going on with Republicans. They are just voting for this not to end. If so, it may continue for quite some time. Romney is the inevitable nominee, but just not yet.

    My only quibble with Sabato is that he starts this by saying the Florida primary is “literally” a category 5 hurricane. It may figuratively or metaphorically be a hurricane, but not literally. Unless the next hurricane that hits Florida is called Newt.

    Sabato needs an editor.

  3. In 2008, you got the sense that Dem voters would switch between Obama and Clinton from one contest to the next for no other reason that they were not ready to say the contest was over.

    Huh. Never heard anyone say that and never got that sense. The pattern I saw is that Clinton tended to win all the big party machine states and Obama won most of the rest. I still think Clinton blew that nomination by playing it early like it was coronation. By the time Obama was considered a threat, he had a ton of momentum and popularity.

    But that pattern does sound right for this GOP nomination party. It’s cold feet.

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