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“We always knew we were not going to get all that much fiscal impact during the first five to six months. The big impact starts to hit from about now onwards.”
– Obama economic adviser Christina Romer on when the economy will pick back up

And this is true. From the CBO’s projections back in January, the money was always going to ramp up in the second half of 2009 and into 2010.

Still, with unemployment rising…will Americans remember that?

From Financial Times:

Ms Romer said that stimulus money was being disbursed at almost exactly the rate forecast by the Office of Management and Budget. “It should make a material contribution to growth in the third quarter.”

But she acknowledged that cutbacks by states facing budget crises would push in the opposite direction.

Ms Romer said the latest economic data were encouraging, following a weaker patch a month ago. “I am more optimistic that we are getting close to the bottom,” she said.

The CEA chairman, who has forecast a sharper rebound in 2010 than most economists, said she had lowered her estimates for growth this year “and also for next year, a bit” since the start of the year. She said the consensus forecast that unemployment would continue to rise for the rest of this year and peak early next year was probably accurate.

If things don’t pick up in 2010, Dems better get ready for some losses in the midterms.

More as it develops…

  • Azhrie139

    No offense, but this post seems like it is just phoning it in. First, little original content. Second, statement of the obvious which actually isn’t relevant to the prior supposition.
    That is this:
    “If things don’t pick up in 2010, Dems better get ready for some losses in the midterms.”
    Followed by this:
    “the money was always going to ramp up in the second half of 2009 and into 2010.”

    Basically, your conclusion while true is really pretty irrelevant to the rest of the post content.

  • http://www.drawnlines.com Drawnlines_Blog

    Ridiculous Obamanomics. The White House’s own estimates said that with or without the damn stimulus we’d be in the same place on the unemployment scale five years out. So why couldn’t we just keep our grandchildren’s money in their piggy banks instead of in China?!

    This of course is not to mention that the White House urged us to pass the stimulus on the promise that swift, bold action would keep unemployment below 8 percent. Here we are at 9.4 percent and rising!

    But wait, there’s more! If you order right now, we’ll send you not one but TWO stimulus packages. Your order will ultimately come complete with stagflation if you order within the next three years.

    Welcome back, Carter!!!