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Chuck Todd and Joe Scarborough break it down…



Do note how Mike Murphy says, “I think they’re smoking crack,” when he talks about McCain trying to get Iowa. I still don’t get why McCain is paying any attention to that state.

Long story short…it’ll be incredibly tough.

  • http://stubbornfacts.us Simon

    Incredibly tough, unless the polls are wrong. Remember that in 2004, the exit polls didn’t reflect the reality of the race – and that was when they were asking voters what they had just done, not what they might do a few days from now. Sometimes polls are wrong. It’s easy to illustrate that point: if the polls being taken right now aren’t more-or-less uniform within their common margin of error, at least some of them are wrong by some amount. Today, RCP lists nine national polls that give Obama a lead by six different margins ranging from +3 to +8; at least some of those polls must be wrong. (What’s interesting about this is that it’s no defense to say that some of those polls might have methodology problems, or that the discrepancies are explainable. Of course that’s true – that’s the point.)

    Polls are helpful, but should be taken with a grain of salt. I worry that if Obama loses, his supporters have gotten so used to the idea that his victory was inevitable that they’ll revisit 2004 on a grand scale: it can’t be that the polls were wrong, they’ll say, the election must have been rigged. Well, once upon a time, Hillary was the inevitable nominee, and as it happens, Truman beat Dewey after all.

  • alogicbit

    “Polls are helpful, but should be taken with a grain of salt. I worry that if Obama loses, his supporters have gotten so used to the idea that his victory was inevitable that they’ll revisit 2004 on a grand scale: it can’t be that the polls were wrong, they’ll say, the election must have been rigged.”

    As to that portion of your comments; You can bet your ass!

    My advice to you Simon, is that unless McCain wins with over 300 electoral votes, head for the hills.