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McCain – 47%
Obama – 43%

I shared some surprising numbers recently that showed Obama leading by 5 in Montana and the two candidates tied in North Dakota…states that went for Bush in 2004 by 20 and 28 points respectively.

Now another state that broke for Bush by 20+ points is seen as a potential pain point for the McCain camp.

The details…

  • McCain struggles to secure his base with 71 favoring him, and 21 favoring Obama…
  • McCain leads by 14% among men…
  • Obama leads by 5% among women…
  • McCain’s favorability is 62%, while Obama’s is at 54%…
  • 26% think McCain is too old…
  • 45% think Obama is too inexperienced…

Now, it’s doubtful that either campaign will spend a ton of money for South Dakota’s 3 electoral votes, but with Obama’s clearly superior ground game…maybe they’ll be able to harness more localized get out of the vote efforts to try and swing it.

More as it develops…