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Remember, if Obama wins Texas, it’s all over. That’s been the Clinton campaign’s contention all along, and even Bill said if she didn’t win both Texas and Ohio, she wouldn’t get the nomination.

First we have Texas, where Obama is showing surprising strength:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama attracting 48% of the vote while Clinton earns 44%. Eight percent (8%) remain undecided and another 12% say it’s possible they could change their mind. That latter figure includes 3% who say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.

Obama leads by sixteen points among men, but trails by nine among women. Clinton’s lead among Hispanic voters is down to seven percentage points.

Note the highlighted passage above. Hillary’s lead among Hispanics is down to 7 percentage points. That’s big news, as this has been one of Hill’s reliable voting blocks. That trend could be turning around, but this is just one poll so take it for what it’s worth.

Onto Pennsylvania, where Hillary’s 21 point lead two weeks ago has been shaved down to 4 points:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania shows Hillary Clinton with a very narrow advantage over Barack Obama in the Democratic Presidential Primary. Clinton earns 46% of the vote while Obama earns 42%. Earlier polling by other firms had shown Clinton with a much larger lead in a state that was once considered favorable to her.

Clinton leads by fifteen points among women but trails by fourteen among men.

Combine all this with a tightening race in Ohio and you have major heartburn for the Clinton camp.

  • http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/ mw

    I just can’t help myself… four days before Clinton won in New Hampshire, we had coverage of another Rasmussen poll::

    Polls Shows Obama Bump In New Hampshire
    By Justin Gardner
    And in at least one poll, he leads by a lot.
    From Rasmussen:

    Barack Obama, fresh from his victory in Iowa, now holds a ten point lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race found Obama with 37% of the vote while Clinton earns 27% […]

    Looks like we are right on track for New Hampshire Redux.

  • http://www.donklephant.com Justin Gardner

    Haha, that’s fair, but you can keep dreaming mw.

    The interesting part about those New Hampshire polls is that Obama actually did end up getting 36%. It’s just that Hillary’s support was way underestimated, and a bunch of people didn’t go with the second tier candidates. But since Super Tuesday, Obama has consistently beaten what the the polls have suggested. Remember Wisconsin? He was supposed to win by maybe 5 points. Instead he won by 17.

    One other thing, most people have made up their mind by now, so there’s a smaller poll of undecideds who can pull off an upset.

    But hey, if you’d like to make it interesting, I’m all ears…

  • TerenceC

    He’ll take Texas by 9 points. Ohio is too close to call in my opinion. PA is tricky because the state consists of Philly on the East side which he’ll win easily and Pittsburgh on the West which he should win marginally. The rest of that huge state is full of old people and Republicans outside those 2 population centers. PA is really a tough call, but i think I have to give it to her. PA has one of the largest population of retirees in the country, might even have more than god’s waiting room itself in FL. (I gotta say though, there is a small tickler file going off in my mind that says he win’s TX big, wins in OH and PA is moot because Billary drops out finally showing some dignity – but I’m just thinking that not saying it.)

  • http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/ mw

    One other thing, most people have made up their mind by now, so there’s a smaller poll of undecideds who can pull off an upset.” – JG

    “Eight percent (8%) remain undecided and another 12% say it’s possible they could change their mind. That latter figure includes 3% who say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.” – Rasmussen

    um… 20% who are undecided or can change their mind is a little bigger than a 4% lead barely out of the margin of error. And if after all the momentum, all the coverage of 11 in a row, all the defections of superdelegates, the unfounded smear of the Clinton campaign accusing them of leaking that picture, the overwhelmingly positive coverage of Obama… and they still have not made up their mind for Obama? What, pray tell, is going to convince them now?

  • http://www.donklephant.com Justin Gardner

    I think your statement should be revised to…

    and they still have not made up their mind?

    Yes, that’s right. For EITHER candidate. And the trends suggests that undecideds are breaking for Barack. That doesn’t mean it’ll happen in this case, but that’s the trend.

    And come on, you know there is always a block of voters who are going to say that even if they’ve made up their mind.

    Paper thin mw…paper thin…

  • TerenceC

    You might be an idiot!

    If you use a Jeff Foxworthy presentation style to shill for the greatest disgrace the White House has had since 1876.

    You might be an idiot!

    If you give Bill Clinton credit for the 90’s economy that was predicated upon an internet bubble, the end of the cold war, and cheap money.

    You might be an idiot!

    If you use Clinton campaign schtick in a ridiclous effort to pitch pipe dreams of the status quo for the last 28 years.