He’s splitting the GOP in two because of his views on abortion and gays.
“If the party nominates a social liberal like Giuliani, there’s not only the potential, but there’s an inevitability of a split,” says John Stemberger, president of the Florida Family Policy Council, a politically active social-conservative group. “Republicans will learn if that happens, they’re going to a pay a price for nominating a social liberal” — by losing the White House in 2008 if social conservatives sit out the election.
On that, some conservatives who focus on economic issues would agree. “There is a danger,” says former Republican Rep. Pat Toomey, president of the Club for Growth, a hard-line antitax group. “There has been a very constructive alliance” of social and economic conservatives, “and it’s hard to imagine cobbling together a majority of Americans without reaching both. But a guy like Mayor Giuliani might be able to secure the nomination without the support of social conservatives.”
In my mind, as I follow the issues and trends, the split is inevitable. Repubs can’t keep running on the social agenda. The country is trending towards a reality where social issues will be more liberal. Maybe that will cost the GOP 2008, but ultimately I believe that the country is going towards a much more Libretarian reality. The party to get closer to that sooner will reap the rewards. Will it be the GOP or the DNC? My guess…neither.
So mark my words…in the next 12 years we will see an Independent candidate take the White House. Maybe it won’t be 2008, but it will happen. America will demand it.
And to that point…
In the general election, they add, Mr. Giuliani could be the most electable Republican because his support of abortion rights, gun control and gay couples’ civil unions could appeal to independents and moderate Republicans. Many of those voters abandoned the party in last fall’s elections, believing it has become too beholden to the religious right.
Again, America will demand it.