With a start date of June 30, 2009 no less!

From AP:

The negotiations over a withdrawal timetable follow long insistence by President Bush that setting any schedule for U.S. troops to leave would be dangerous. The draft agreement with Iraq would link troop reductions to achievement of certain security milestones, although the details have not been made public.

Listen, we all knew that we would have to set some type of timetable at some point. And to suggest otherwise wasn’t being honest with reality. We couldn’t leave in the middle of the night, and a reasonable withdrawal date was always in the card.

Still, this latest agreement is thin on details, and I don’t think we know yet if the US will have permanent bases in Iraq. My guess is that Bush would insist on it, and that would be a key concession for US withdrawal. But we don’t know quite yet…

A key part of the U.S.-Iraqi draft agreement envisions the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq’s cities by next June 30, according to Iraqi and American officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because the proposed deal’s details have not been publicly announced. A related issue is setting additional timelines for troop withdrawals, including a date by which all U.S. forces would be gone.

Said Zebari: “This agreement determines the principle provisions, requirements, to regulate the temporary presence and the time horizon, the mission of the U.S. forces.”

So, will this plan embolden the terrorists? Will it create more violence in Iraq? Will it completely destabilize the Middle East?

I’ll have more as it develops…

I think this was a pretty easy one to call, but given the speculation a couple weeks ago, I figured I’d follow up.

From Politico:

LAS CRUCES, N.M. — John McCain stated unequivocally in an interview with Politico on Wednesday that he would not pledge to serve only a single four-year term, rejecting a suggestion that some allies believe would allay questions about his age and underscore his nonpartisan message of putting country first.

“No,” McCain said flatly, “I’m not considering it.”

As McCain had stated before, anybody who agreed to such a pledge would essentially be a lame duck on day one.

So that’s that!

A new group calling themselves the American Issues Project is putting $2.8M behind the TV ad in Ohio and Michigan.

Ambinder shares some additional details…

The group calls itself “an organization representing a coalition of activists committed to raising conservative issues both during and after the election.” It includes longtime Republican activists like Ed Failor, Jr. of Iowa. Failor was a McCain adviser in the state.

And so it begins. The “do and say anything” crowd swings into action.

Expect it to get a lot nastier.

He has decided who the “person” will be, so who do you think fits the following profile?

Obama said he wanted somebody who is “prepared to be president” and who will be “a partner with me in strengthening this economy for the middle class and working families.”

He said he was looking for not just a partner but a sparring partner. “I want somebody who’s independent, somebody who can push against my preconceived notions and challenge me so we have got a robust debate in the White House.”

Biden doesn’t seem to fit that mold, and neither does Bayh. Still, this could all be a head fake, and Obama would probably say this about ANY Veep candidate.

Thoughts?

Sorry folks. I looked at the wrong numbers yesterday and reported that Obama was leading by 3. He was actually leading by 2. And today McCain gains a point, thus cutting Obama’s lead by 1.

The details…

Obama had enjoyed a slightly larger three-point average margin over McCain from the time Obama clinched the Democratic nomination in early June through the Aug. 11-13 tracking results. Over this time period, Obama’s mean level of support was 46% compared with 43% for McCain.

As a result, the candidates are poised to enter an unusually intense period of high-profile campaign events, with both candidates’ vice presidential candidate announcements and both parties’ national conventions taking place over the next two weeks. These events have brought shifts in voter preferences in the past when they occurred, but usually were separated by several days or weeks. It is unclear if their impact will be as great this year since they will occur in such a compressed window of time.

More tomorrow…

With leaners
Obama - 48%
McCain - 46%

Without leaners
Obama - 45%
McCain - 42%

Obama adds one in the “with leaners” numbers, but can he reach 50%? Or will McCain overtake him after the Republican National Convention?

And why do I highlight this daily polling? Rasmussen explains…

A batch of polls from other organizations yesterday confirmed the tightening of the race that Rasmussen Reports first picked up several weeks ago.

One of the advantages of daily tracking is that you are able to more precisely measure when changes in the race take place rather than relying on a once-a-month update.

Currently, a couple of other polls show McCain ahead and a few more show Obama with the lead. That’s exactly the distribution you’d expect to see if Obama is up by a point or two.

The 5 day w/leaners:
08/21/2008: McCain - 46%, Obama - 48%
08/20/2008: McCain - 46%, Obama - 47%
08/19/2008: McCain - 45%, Obama - 47%
08/18/2008: McCain - 46%, Obama - 47%
08/17/2008: McCain - 45%, Obama - 47%

The 5 day w/o leaners:
08/21/2008: McCain - 42%, Obama - 45%
08/20/2008: McCain - 42%, Obama - 45%
08/19/2008: McCain - 42%, Obama - 45%
08/18/2008: McCain - 43%, Obama - 44%
08/17/2008: McCain - 42%, Obama - 44%

More tomorrow…

Apparently, the controversy of the day revolves around John McCain’s ability to accurately state how many houses he and his wife own:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said in an interview Wednesday that he was uncertain how many houses he and his wife, Cindy, own.

“I think — I’ll have my staff get to you,” McCain told Politico in Las Cruces, N.M. “It’s condominiums where — I’ll have them get to you.”

The correct answer is at least four, located in Arizona, California and Virginia, according to his staff. Newsweek estimated this summer that the couple owns at least seven properties.

Which prompted this snarky response from Virginia Governor Tim Kaine:

Obama V.P. prospect and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine mocked Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., on Thursday for not knowing exactly how many houses he owns.

“I understand that Sen. McCain was asked yesterday this question, ‘how many houses do you own?,’ and he couldn’t answer that question. He couldn’t count high enough apparently to even know how many houses he owns,” said Kaine.

And, as The Politco reports, the Democrats apparently think they have something here:

In recent weeks, Democrats have stepped up their effort to caricature McCain as living an outlandishly rich lifestyle — a bit of payback to the GOP for portraying Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) as an elitist, and for turning the spotlight in 2004 on the five homes owned by Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) and his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry.

Pro-Obama labor groups have sent out mailers highlighting McCain’s wealth, and prominent Democrats have included references to it in comments to reporters.

Twice in the past two weeks, those Democrats have focused on McCain’s houses.

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) told Politico’s Ben Smith that it was McCain “who wears $500 shoes, has six houses and comes from one of the richest families in his state.”

And David Axelrod, Obama’s chief strategist, referred in an interview with Adam Nagourney of The New York Times to an imagined meeting of McCain strategists “on the portico of the McCain estate in Sedona — or maybe in one of his six other houses.”

And the Obama campaign has gotten into the game with this ad which is one of the more balatant hate-the-rich appeals I’ve seen in quite a long time:

Will it work ? Only time will tell, of course, but the truth of the matter is that there is a segment of the population out there for whom an appeal to envy and class warfare will work, and that’s obviously what the Obama campaign is banking on.

The truth of the matter, of course, is that it doesn’t matter how many homes McCain and his wife — who happens to be an heiress and businesswoman worth quite a lot of money — own or have an interest in. No more than it matters how big Barack Obama’s Chicago home is, or that he took a week long vacation in Hawaii, something that most Americans couldn’t afford.

If you’re attacking the men because of their ideas, that’s one thing. If you’re attacking them merely because they, or their spouses, are successful, that’s quite another and its a sign of the kind of envy that, in the end, can come of no good.

Cross-Posted From Below The Beltway

Thanks to a generous invitation from Justin Gardner, I’ve joined the blogging team here at Donklephant so, I guess it’s best to start out with an introduction.

My name is Doug Mataconis and, for the past three years or so, I’ve been blogging about politics, news, and whatever else catches my interest at Below The Beltway. I am also a contributing blogger at the libertarian-oriented group blog The Liberty Papers.

Like every other politcal blogger, I have been swept up in what is without a doubt the most interesting, exciting Presidential race in my lifetime and I started reading Donklephant sometime last year and have enjoyed the coverage these guys have been providing. So, it’s an honor to be asked to join the team and I hope I can live up to the standard they’ve set.

With the campaign only days away from entering it’s most intense phase, I’ll be posting what I can when I can and hopefully contributing to the already excellent political coverage here at Donklephant.

While John McCain has received plenty of attention and criticism for his anti-Barack Obama ad spots, most might think Obama has been taking the high road. Not exactly true. Obama has run numerous anti-McCain spots, mostly in swing states. The Obama campaign has simply decided to keep those ads quieter and not publicize them in the way the McCain campaign has publicized their negative advertizing.

To see nine of Obama’s negative ads, check out the link above. They range from snarky to purposefully misleading and they’re exactly what you’d expect from any politics-as-usual campaign. But I guess Obama is still concerned with appearing as a “new kind” of politician, so his campaign has made sure most of these ads are seen only in swing states.

I have a feeling Obama will soon have to start hitting McCain on a national level. One of the ways negative advertising works is that the spots get replayed endlessly by cable news stations and discussed by the talking heads. It’s one thing for Obama to call McCain clueless on the economy. It’s a whole other thing to have Wolf Blitzer posing the question “Is John McCain clueless on the economy?” The cable news channels fall for that kind of bait with surprising regularity.

Pretending to take the high road won’t get Obama very far. While the voter in me would prefer this to be a substantive, respectful campaign, the political strategist in me thinks Obama can’t afford to only kinda-sorta get in the trenches. It’s a shame the campaign has had to go this way – but they all eventually do, don’t they?

After the nonsense this primary season, I can understand why Democrats across the board would want to diminish the importance of these folks.

From Wash Post:

Barack Obama’s campaign will call next week for the creation of a new commission to revise the rules for selecting a presidential nominee in 2012 with a goal of reducing the power of superdelegates, whose role became a major point of contention during the long battle between Obama and Hillary Clinton. [...]

The proposed changes grow out of discussions between Obama’s campaign team, officials at the Democratic National Committee and representatives of Hillary Clinton’s former presidential campaign, Plouffe said. [...]

“The number of super delegates has gotten too large in relation to overall delegates,” Plouffe said. “We want to give more control back to the voters…. Everyone thinks there ought to be more weight given to the results of the elections.”

Also, this new commission will be looking at changing up the primary schedule, although it doesn’t look likely that Iowa or New Hampshire will be moved around…

The other significant change is the call to redraw the primary and caucus calendar. The 2008 calendar drew significant criticism both for the early starting dates for the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries, and also because there were so many states crowded into the first month of what turned out to be a five-month campaign.

As envisioned by the Obama and Clinton campaigns, most contests could not be held before March, except for a handful of states authorized to go earlier — presumably in February rather than January.

I think these are all good changes, but I wish they’d mix up the primary calendar A LOT more. Give other states a chance to go first instead of Iowa and New Hampshire.

What do you think?

How can I not link to a blog post that starts out like this…

Do you ever walk into your local coffee shop and think, “You know what this place needs? More Ann Coulter.”

Check out Ablogistan for the whole story…

In other words, will Joe use the occasion to grace us with a “spit ball” line or will he actually provide a message of unity at the Republican’s convention?

Some details…

The GOP official said Wednesday that Lieberman would deliver a speech as Republicans gathered in St. Paul to nominate John McCain for president. The official requested anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to make an announcement.

It’s your show Joe. Don’t blow it.

He’s been talking about unity since WAY back…

Part One

Part Two

Part Three

If you still think Obama is a phony after listening to him here, I don’t know what else to tell you.

(h/t: Old Man McCain)

He gained 1 from yesterday as we head into convention week, which should give Obama a bounce.

Still, Gallup shares why they think Barack should be leading by more…

Obama’s support has not gone above 49% in any Gallup Poll Daily report since Gallup began tracking the Obama-McCain race in early March. However, given the Democratic advantage in national party identification, 50% or better support for Obama would seem to be within reach.

More tomorrow…

McCain - 50%
Obama - 40%

That’s a jump of 7 points since last month. And as anybody who follows polls knows, if you hit the 50% mark or drop below 40%, that’s a big deal.

The details…

The key to McCain’s rise is nearly doubling his lead among white voters. He now has a 56-35 advantage with them, up from 50-39 in July. Obama is still dominating among black voters but it’s nearly impossible for him to win in Missouri without keeping his deficit with whites in single digits.

As he is in many states McCain is doing a better job of keeping voters in his party with him than Obama is. He is up 87-9 among Republicans while Obama has a smaller 78-15 lead with Democrats.

As I’ve reported earlier, Obama is setting up a big time ground game in Missouri, but maybe he should give up and focus on states with closer contests like Colorado and Nevada?

More as it develops…

“I have never suggested that Senator McCain picks his positions on national security based on politics or personal ambition. I have not suggested it because I believe that he genuinely wants to serve America’s national interest. Now, it’s time for him to acknowledge that I want to do the same.”
- Obama addressing veterans yesterday at a VFW Convention in Florida

Yeah…I wouldn’t hold my breath if I were him. I think it’s pretty apparent given this “Celebrity” campaign that McCain doesn’t really care what he has to say to win.

Also, now that the polls show this race starting to tighten in the electoral college, my guess is it could get even rougher.

And so it goes…

With leaners
Obama - 47%
McCain - 46%

Without leaners
Obama - 45%
McCain - 42%

Pretty much the same numbers as yesterday, but McCain did gain one in the “with leaners” numbers.

Some notes on favorability and the Dem convention…

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of the nation’s voters, McCain by 55%. [...]

As Democrats prepare to gather for their national convention, 49% of voters nationwide say Hillary Clinton could overshadow the party’s presumptive nominee.

The 5 day w/leaners:
08/20/2008: McCain - 46%, Obama - 47%
08/19/2008: McCain - 45%, Obama - 47%
08/18/2008: McCain - 46%, Obama - 47%
08/17/2008: McCain - 45%, Obama - 47%
08/16/2008: McCain - 45%, Obama - 46%

The 5 day w/o leaners:
08/20/2008: McCain - 42%, Obama - 45%
08/19/2008: McCain - 42%, Obama - 45%
08/18/2008: McCain - 43%, Obama - 44%
08/17/2008: McCain - 42%, Obama - 44%
08/16/2008: McCain - 41%, Obama - 43%

More tomorrow…

Sort of…

Here’s the count if there are no toss up states…

Here’s the count if toss up states are still considered toss up states…

Regardless, the race is tightening and it’s increasingly clear that late July and the whole of August has not been a good month for Obama in terms of momentum.

John Cole provides the appropriate snark and asks the question…is this bad news for McCain?

Then again, the question I have is that if Obama only leading nationally by a few points all summer was considered bad news for Obama, then clearly McCain taking the lead must be construed as bad news for John McCain. Or am I just not really understanding the premise that EVERYTHING IS GOOD NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN, and that when Obama was only leading by 5 it was bad news for Obama, and this is now CATASTROPHIC NEWS and the CAMPAIGN IS IN DISARRAY and they NEED A SHAKE-UP!

What do you think? Is Obama really sinking or is this just kind of the ebb and flow of a campaign cycle?

So, John McCain has pulled ahead in the most recent monthly Reuters / Zogby poll. Why? I think there are two reasons.

The lesser reason first: The crisis in Georgia brought the whole “3 a.m. phone call” scenario into clear focus. Obama initially seemed like he just wished the situation would go away. McCain took the matter head-on. Whether or not McCain’s approach is the best doesn’t really matter. What I think matters to many voters is that he seemed eager and willing to act decisively while Obama was on vacation in Hawaii. Bad timing for that vacation.

Now, the major reason: The celebrity attack ads have had some effect because they turn Obama’s greatest strength, his charisma, into a liability. The breathless media coverage of Obama’s foreign tour made him look presumptuous. The Berlin crowd in particular made him look more like an international rock star than a man you can trust with serious matters (not saying that’s an accurate portrayal, just an easy perception for some voters to come away with).

Obama overplayed his celebrity and McCain hit him on it. It doesn’t even matter that McCain himself has eagerly cultivated celebrity for years – it matters that McCain has positioned himself as the “serious” candidate and is making Obama seem like a lightweight.

Clinton tried the same “he’s not ready” attack against Obama, but the Democratic nomination process is as much about ground game as it is about messaging and Clinton failed in the trenches. McCain doesn’t have to work the trenches to score well in these polls.

Nevertheless, I expect Obama to close the gap and even regain the lead. One of the interesting factoids of the Zogby poll is that only 74% of Democrats are supporting Obama (a 9 percent drop from last month) as compared to 81% of Republicans who support McCain. I think Obama has a lot better chance of rallying cautious Democrats who worry about his credentials than McCain does in rallying Republicans who view him as an apostate.

Time will tell…

Good news for the McCain camp, as they see that their “Celebrity” attacks are definitely having an impact. Because we’re looking at a 12 point swing since Obama lead by 7 in July.

From Reuters:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama’s solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

The reversal follows a month of attacks by McCain, who has questioned Obama’s experience, criticized his opposition to most new offshore oil drilling and mocked his overseas trip.

And on the economy…

McCain now has a 9-point edge, 49 percent to 40 percent, over Obama on the critical question of who would be the best manager of the economy — an issue nearly half of voters said was their top concern in the November 4 presidential election.

That margin reversed Obama’s 4-point edge last month on the economy over McCain, an Arizona senator and former Vietnam prisoner of war who has admitted a lack of economic expertise and shows far greater interest in foreign and military policy.

This has been Obama’s advantage over McCain, and if he can’t hold onto that, he’s going to have a hard time getting elected. Forget all the anger over George Bush. Because, in the end, people seem just as likely to pick the candidate they perceive is the more experienced leader.

More as it develops…